Urlacher Gets Deal: but at what price?

What once looked like a storybook career in line with the great middle linebacker tradition that came before him has now become a tale of bad timing. Brian Urlacher’s soon to be signed extension with the Bears is a fair, market-level deal. He’s receiving and extra $6mil up front as a bonus, an additional $1mil a year, and they’ve add a year that will pay him $7.5mil for 2012. Nothing about the contract is irrational or out of line, it’s a compromise from the Bears reported initial offer and what Urlacher probably wanted. In today’s NFL it is reasonable for a team to hold their ground with players so as not to be held hostage year in and year out. It’s also entirely reasonable for a player, who can be cut at seemingly any time, to try and get as much money while he can. Nothing done here was over the top or wrong. The Bears never trashed Urlacher and he never ripped in to the organization, like teammate Lance Briggs, or fans. It was a simple deal in the NFL business world. So how, at an amicable end to a legitimate conflict, did Brian Urlacher end up the villain?

If you listen to Jay Maroitti, and I pray for your own benefit that you don’t, Urlacher is a petulant child who is underperforming and not living up to the Legends that preceded him. He’s an injury risk, whose skills are declining, has never become the team leader the Bears need, and his off the field life is a stain on himself, the organization, and the Bears’ MLB legacy. It used to be that the Chicago media mocked others for their jealousy when reports came out claiming Urlacher was the most overrated player in the NFL. Now even in his home town the media is happy to pile on and question whether this guy deserves another dime. My own co-host on Bearscast has suggested multiple times that we trade him now. Ouch, how’d he go from fan favorite, defensive player of the year, and future hall of famer to that?

Well to be entirely honest some of it is his fault. His one word, grunting answers to reporters post-game questions didn’t help his image during an incredibly disappointing season. Then going “around their backs”, so to speak, by breaking your contract demands with national media, Yahoo! Sports, does even less to put you in reporters good graces. Granted this treatment of local media probably had a lot to do with their coverage of his messy custody battle over his young daughter with a former “exotic dancer”. Now whether I agree that Urlacher had a right to be upset or not about the coverage, and I do, the situation proves that feuding with the media doesn’t work unless you win and perform BIG. And last year the Bears didn’t win while Urlacher performed big, but not BIG. I am pretty sure most other teams and towns would take 123 tackles, 5 sacks, 5 INTs, and everything else he brought to the field even with neck and back injuries. However, with the rest of the defense falling apart around him (Adewale Ogunleye was the only other opening day starter who didn’t get hurt or under perform) Urlacher looked human. Looking human, coming off a disappointing season, and without the media on your side is not exactly a good time to ask for an extension, but he did it anyway….

Now as I mentioned at the beginning of the column this really amounts to mostly bad timing. He’s angry at the media for covering what he believes is a private family matter, an unfortunate side effect of modern media. He and the team are coming off a disappointing season where Urlacher was exposed by injuries and poor play that surrounded him. And feeling the pressure of age, injury, and the money drying up as the Bears looked to hand out new contracts to Tommie Harris, Briggs, and Devin Hester, #54 sprang into this ill-fated action. How can I claim it’s ill-fated when he just landed another $18mil? Well given the reception to the contract around the city and especially in the media I don’t think it’s too far fetched. Urlacher is supposed to be a star in this city, even if national publications or other fans occasionally take swipes at him, but as camp open he seems more like a man without a lot of friends or supporters outside the locker room.

But I will stand here and defend the move from both the Bears and especially Urlacher’s position. At the beginning of the decade Urlacher signed a 9yr/$57mil contract for what was, at the time, record setting money. Then the landscape changed, the salary cap grew by over $35mil and players salaries with it. And just as you would feel justified in asking for a raise when all the people being hired around you are getting even more money than you, Urlacher felt justified that his pay should equate to his status as one of the top players at his position. But when you show chips in the armour those who don’t understand, envy the kind of money you are making, or hold a grudge find ways to take you down a peg. Most people complain about the amount of money athletes make as if it was their fault or they’d do things completely differently if they were suddenly gifted with the skills, luck, dedication, and of course money that comes with being a professional athlete. Suddenly you aren’t essential to the team’s success, you don’t need to be “kept at any cost”, because you aren’t a hero anymore and the local guy at the end of the bar would do your job for half that money and never complain. Of course the team who sits on the other side of the negotiation table, and has an equal right to expect you to play out the contract you originally signed, can use that against you. The Bears did that, resolved the situation without too much difficulty, and general consent declares them the winners because of how Urlacher is perceived.

So Brian will show up to training camp and the cheers won’t be quite as loud as they were before, may even be a few boos scatter about. Heaven forbid he gets hurt this year because neither he nor the Bears will live it down. But if the Bears have the kind of season most expect, a losing one, and Urlacher puts up his usual numbers he’ll be nothing but a greedy, spoiled superstar who is cheating the fans. Or if the team surprises, which will likely have a lot more to do with others performing better and not him, Urlacher will have come back humbled, dedicated, and looking to repair his image. Almost none of it will have to do with his personal play, which has been consistently excellent, or that in NFL economics his extension was completely sensible. It’s all about perception at this point, and that’s one situation where Urlacher finds himself in a similar spot as the team likely will this year, behind.

Handing Out the Grades

I provide you with my pick by pick breakdown and grade of the Bears 2008 draft. I have initially stated that I found the draft underwhelming, but that by no means makes it a bad draft. While it appears to be a draft that lacks in explosiveness, Angelo seemed to make up for that by landing a lot of quality players who should find ways to contribute.

Pick 1 (Round 1): C. Williams LT, Vanderbilt
The start of the first round really could not have worked out better for the Bears. Williams pretty much fell into their laps, and it’s an incredible blessing considering some scouts had him ranked as the #2 LT in this draft class. Williams should proved a huge boost the line by sliding in at LT and allowing a health John Tait to take over at RT. He’s got a strong track record against SEC opponents and has outstanding size and lateral movement. Ideally he fits here for many years to come
Grade: A

Pick 2 (Round 2): M. Forte RB, Tulane
The selection of Forte here has been criticized because many feel he is too similar to Benson. Both are larger backs who run with power and lack elite top end speed, but that is where the parallels seem to end. The biggest difference between the two is Forte’s ability to locate the hole. He’s a one cut runner who identifies the hole and then hits it hard. Additionally he has solid hands and is a solid blocker who can stay in on 3^rd down. I really think Angelo see’s Forte as a bigger version of Thomas Jones and if Forte possess enough quickness to get around the edge (his biggest question mark) than I think this is a steal.
Grade: B

Pick 3 (Round 3): E. Bennett WR, Vanderbilt
A smart, quick route runner. He’s been compared by Mel Kiper to Hines Ward, but I wonder if that’s really a good thing. At 5’11”/209 he seems to have the necessary strength but there are concerns about his ability to get separation. His 4.48 40 seems to indicate good enough top end speed, but he seems to lack the quickness and second gear to make plays in space. That aside Bennett was one of the most productive WR in SEC history and should fit right into the slot position.

Grade: C+

Pick 4 (Round 3): M. Harrison DT, Arkansas
I am really not sure how to approach this pick. On one end Harrison is a lighting quick pass rusher, huge but not really powerful and seemingly a perfect back up and insurance policy for Tommie Harris. On the other hand ha has already had serious drug related problems with law. So I wonder if this guy is Dustin Dvoracek or Tank Johnson. If he’s Tank then it’s a waste of a 3^rd round pick who’s never going to make a serious impact. If he’s Dustin then he’s a steal who can spell Harris and potentially provide long-term security at the 3-technique.

Grade: C

Pick 5 (Round 4): C. Steltz S, LSU
The Bears need at S was pretty evident all of last year and I think Steltz can come in and help address that need. He’s probably destined to be a ST standout for now, but he plays with great instincts and an extremely high motor. Most importantly, while he doesn’t have great speed he is very adept in run support and is supposed to be an excellent blitzer. Those are two qualities that were desperately missing from the position after Mike Brown went down in the opener. Who knows, we could see him paired with Danieal Manning sooner than we think.

Grade: A

Pick 6 (Round 5): Z. Bowman CB, Nebraska
In the pass happy NFL landing guys like Bowman and Trumaine McBride are esstential for keeping up on defense. Bowman is a freakish athlete at CB, great blend of size (6’0”) and speed (4.38). There is a lot to be concerned about with his history of knee injuries. Also Bowman transferred to Nebraska out of junior college so his experience against high level competition is limited. For now his athleticism should be on full display on ST, in the future he could combine with McBride, Tillman, and Vasher to make amongst the best CB groups in the NFL.
Grade: B+

Pick 7 (Round 5): K. Davis TE, Michigan State
Huge kid at 6’6”/262 and he runs pretty well for that size at 4.6. Both of those should make him an immediate redzone threat. However, despite that size Davis has yet to develop into a solid blocker and that will be an important evolution as he tries to make the roster as a 3^rd TE. Davis was also flagged for character problems because of misdemeanor assault charges in ’06 and he was suspended by MSU for 4 games. In a best case scenario he’s Clark’s eventual replacement, but this pick just strikes me as more potential than actual
Grade: C+

Pick 8 (Round 7): E. Baldwin DE, Michigan State
Good rush end. He only played 2 years at MSU showing promise, had good combine, and is the Spartan single season sack record holder. He’s really a typical Bears type end who likes to get around the end and make plays in the backfield. However, holding up against the run is the issue and I don’t really know where he fits on the roster. The Bears already have 3 DE (Brown, Ogunleye, Anderson) last year’s 2^nd round pick (Bazuin) and the flexibility to move Idonije to the outside. I don’t see them carrying 5 DE so if he’s going to make the team someone has to get cut, that’s why I’m down on this pick
Grade: D

Pick 9 (Round 7): C. Adams OG, Georgia
The Bears continue to show their value of big school and conference players late in the draft with Adams. The Bears desperately need depth at G so it should give Adams a decent chance of making the team. Has ideal size at 6’4”/320, but has been tagged with the dreaded “doesn’t play as big as his size suggests”. He’s about as good as you can do this late and hopefully some work at the NFL level can increase his punch and drive.
Grade: B-

Pick 10 (Round 7): J. LaRocque OLB, Oregon St
Very typical undersized OLB prospect for the Bears. Has a reputation of being instinctive and productive despite his athletic deficiencies. Really doesn’t have much of a chance to make the team except as a ST player, so his effort will be the key to his success on the next level.
Grade: C-

Pick 11 (Round 7): K. Barton OT, Ohio St
Barton defines the lunch pail mentality when it comes to offensive linemen. Scouts Inc had this to say, “Barton is very tough and experienced. He almost always finds a way to get the job done. The problem is that his athletic deficiencies are going to show up at the NFL level.” He is stiff and slow right now which probably means he’ll eventually have to move inside, but there is always room for guys who work hard.
Grade: C

Pick 12 (Round 7): M. Monk WR, Arkansas
Monk intrigues me more than any other Bears pick outside of Forte. He would've been a much higher pick 2 years ago, but a knee injury derailed his senior season. He sort of reminds me (at least in body size) of a Plaxico Burress, and really has decent speed. The questions will be his explosiveness coming off the injury and if he can create separation. I really think he's going to make the team and could be a big surprise this year.
Grade: B+

The Bears again added a lot of depth and might have found some contributors in the late rounds. Williams was pretty much a consensus pick so there are no problems there. However, a lot will come down to the impact Bennett and Forte make. Both have enough warning signs that you could see them being non-factors, but if each does make a big impact at his position than this was a great draft. The biggest problem was the lack of obvious “big play” potential players picked up here, but personally I’ll be happy if Forte can just grind out about 4 yards per carry.

Overall Grade: B-

In a Word..

...Underwhelmed. The Bears 2008 draft was certainly nothing spectacular and we won’t have the talking heads raving on and on about an “A” draft, but it wasn’t particularly disappointing either. The Bears used a lot of late round picks (as they always do) on players that were simply the best value at that point and didn’t necessarily address a need.

This is going to be an interesting training camp. First round pick Chris Williams should slide right in somewhere on the OL, but the addition of 2nd rounder Matt Forte probably means someone is going to get cut. With Peterson, Benson, and Wolfe already on the roster I doubt the Bears carry 4 RB and that means someone has to lose his job. Forte is probably also the most questionable pick of the draft by the Bears, with Rutgers Ray Rice still on the board. The 2nd day saw added competition at WR where the Bears add Earl Bennett in the 3rd and Marcus Monk in the 7th. They will compete with Brandon Llyod and Mark Bradley for the last two WR roster spots, unless the Bears can justify carrying 6 WR because of Hester’s and Davis’ contribution on Special Teams.

Also the Bears added a 5th round TE Kellen Davis (bye bye Fontel Mines), a 5th round CB
Zackary Bowman (bye bye Ricky Manning Jr.) a 4th round S Craig Steltz (bye bye Adam Archuleta), and a 3rd round DT Marcus Harrison (bye bye Anthony Adams?). So while the Bears seemingly fail to address their desperate need for play-makers on offense (unless Forte is a big surprise) they did have a solid draft of address a few needs and adding depth.

NL Preview

After some time to step back and attempt to be as objective as possible I give you my outlook on the 2008 National League race. Added in is my World Series prediction, really not that big of a shocker.... or is it?

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves– They just won’t go away. Year in and year out the Braves manage to hold on to enough veterans and fill in the holes with capable youngsters. The middle of their line-up is extremely dangerous with Teixeira, Chipper Jones, and Francoeur. The key for them is the play of youngsters Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson up the middle and if they can get enough out of a thin and injury riddled bullpen.

2. NY Mets*– They will certainly be out for vengeance after last year’s collapse. Landing Johan Santana during the off-season is sure one hell of a way to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Led by David Wright and Jose Reyes the youngsters need some help from that aging Alou and Carlos Delgado. The pitfall for this team will likely come with their pitching as Pedro Martinez and El Duque are already on the DL again.

3. Philadelphia Phillies– This team will bash as always and probably would’ve cruised to the division last year if they had not lost Chase Utley for so much time. A lot of questions about whether or not Brad Lidge can regain a dominant form, but if he does he could anchor a bullpen that at least gives them a shot. However, I have serious doubts that Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are enough in the rotation even though Howard, Rollins, and Burrell will give them plenty of support.

4. Washington Nationals– The Nationals have collected plenty of young talent to open their new ballpark with in Elijah Dukes, Lasting Milledge and Ryan Zimmerman. But the talent at most of the other positions is extremely underwhelming and the pitching staff is rather patch work. Chad Cordero does give them a nice young arm in the pen, but with a long way still to go its likely he’s a hot name on the trading block this season.

5. Florida Marlins– Same story, different year. The Marlins continue to cut costs but develop and win with young talent. The off-season trade of Cabrera will certainly hurt the offense, but the inclusion of Willis could be addition by subtraction for the pitching staff. I firmly believe that Hanley Ramirez is going to win an MVP some day. As the Marlins take steps towards becoming the new Montreal Expos we can all get excited about watching Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen, Jeremy Hermida, and Andrew Miller and wonder when they might get traded to our team.

NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs– I’ve already written a bit about the Cubs so there isn’t much to say. The Cubs stand 100 years separated from their last World Championship and they are likely to tease another generation of fans this year. They plugged up some major holes with the addition of Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto, but they are likely still another big time starter from making a serious challenge in the playoffs.

2. Milwaukee Brewers– One thing we know about this team is that they can hit. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Co. are going to punish pitchers all year as arguably the best NL line-up. But as Ben Sheets goes so does this team and their pitching staff. His injury last year was key in their late season struggles that cost them the division. Youngsters Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra will try and pick up the slack, but it might not matter if Eric Gagne and Derrick Turnbow can’t hold things down at the end of the game.

3. Cincinnati Reds– Full of big time hitters and young pitchers the Reds look to be finally poised to get back into the NL Central mix, and then they hired Dusty Baker. The big question will be what they do with Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn the two older and expensive sluggers in their line-up. Both could fetch the necessary pieces to fill in around Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and super prospect Jay Bruce. The big concern now is if Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez can survive the tenure of Baker.

4. St. Louis Cardinals– As long as you’ve got Albert Pujols you gotta chance. Although the rumors that he may need elbow surgery at some point this season is extremely concerning. Albert’s injury along with missing Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter probably make this a lost season. However, there will be plenty to watch as we get a full season from Rick Ankiel, the continued development of Adam Wainwright and the eventual call-up of Colby Rasmus. It might be a lost year, but the Cardinals always manage to hang around.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates– The Pirates are probably the definition of spinning your wheels. They would seem to have some solid players in Nate McLouth, Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady. But then they go and do something like trade FOR Matt Morris at last year’s deadline. It’s moves like that which have the Pirates approaching two decades of losing season. Unfortunately for those in Pittsburgh this year won’t be any different.

6. Houston Astros– As mystifying as the Pirates have been, the Astros have given them a run for their money recently in the relm of poorly run franchises. They gave up a five prospects to acquire Miguel Tejada and add him to a potent line-up with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Hunter Pence. The problem for the Astros is they just picked up a SS at the end of their prime for a team that has next to nothing in pitching. After Roy Oswalt they don’t have much in the rotation or pen, and the Astros will probably be in the basement until that changes.

NL West
1. LA Dodgers– The Dodgers appear to be an ideal combination of youth and veteran talent. Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, and Andruw Jones should give them plenty of established production to go with the young bats of Jame Loney, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. They also would seem to have plenty of pitching with Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, and their own Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda. Their problems have been in the clubhouse the last few year and I’m willing to bet that experience of Joe Torre can get things smoothed out, and the Dodgers can finally play to their potential.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks– The aces Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are intimidating. The young hitters, Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew, are dangerous. And yet there is something about the fact that this team was OUTSCORED last year that I can’t get over. The D’backs got by last year by winning a lot of 1 run games, but with Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena anchoring their bullpen odds of a repeat are against them. Without a leap by their 2^nd year players offensively it’ll be a year of disappointment.

3. San Diego Padres– Their combination of pitching and ballpark will keep them competitive all year and probably for the foreseeable future. Jake Peavy will probably be in contention for the pitching Triple Crown again and the sad part is it probably will fail to get them into the playoffs again. The Padres line-up is completely devoid of power outside of Adrian Gonzalez, and giving Jim Edmonds regular playing time at this point isn’t helping that. It’s sad that year after year the Padres continually fail to address their hitting woes and in an increasingly competitive division they are falling behind.

4. Colorado Rockies– From September to mid-October 2007 the Rockies played probably the most ridiculous stretch of baseball in the history of MLB. But color me a skeptic that they can repeat that over the long haul. While the Rockies will always hit and the likes of Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki will put up huge numbers, there is a lot to worry about with their pitching. During the stretch run last year the Rockies got a lot from youngsters Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Without strong sophomore campaigns from those two the Rockies are destined for .500.

5. San Francisco Giants– The post-Bonds era begins in San Fransisco and it probably won’t be pretty. A lineup built around Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina is really pretty shameful and should make games pretty tough to watch at times. Oh and the $126 million man Barry Zito seems to have lost even more off of his fastball. By the time he’s done with the Giants his contract will probably challenge Mike Hampton’s for the worst pitcher contract of all time. But at least they have the future of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum to hang their hats on, sadly that’s about it.

Playoffs
Chicago Cubs over Atlanta Braves
LA Dodgers over NY Mets

Dodgers over Cubs

WORLD SERIES
Cleveland Indians over LA Dodgers

NL MVP: Mark Teixeira
NL CY YOUNG: Johan Santana

Does This Man Deserve More Money?

A lot has been made over the last week of Brian Urlacher’s decision to hold out of voluntary work outs in order to bring attention to his contract. As in all cases there are two sides to every story.

• The Bears would like to point to the fact that the Bears signed Urlacher to a record breaking 9yr/$59mil contract that runs through 2011 and they feel has held up over the years. And that it was his decision to sign for so many years.
  
• Urlacher’s camp highlights the 30% increase in the salary cap since the defensive captain signed his contract, his DPOY, and the Bears trip to the Super Bowl.
  

Making things more complicated is admission of Urlacher that he has an arthritic back at the start of 2007, and then he followed up the year with surgery on his neck. It could be those injury concerns that has Urlacher grasping for more guaranteed money. For now it’s not too big an issue, but if Urlacher decides to hold out through mandatory what do the Bears do?

Oh yeah... and then there's that Tommie Harris extension...

AL Preview/Predictions

With the baseball season upon us I figured it was time to open my damn mouth again and see how things in both leagues stack up for the year ahead. I’ll start wit the AL because I don’t really have a vested interest other than enjoying seeing the Yankees and White Sox suffer.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox – They are the defending champs. They did it with off years from Manny Ramirez and Big Papi. There are some concerns about their pitching rotation and what happens to Tim Wakefield with Doug Mirabelli out of town. However, Josh Beckett and Dice-K should hold down the fort enough to get through the youngsters struggles. This team is still the best blend of youth and established stars.
2. New York Yankees*– They still have a tremendous line-up. I’ve been predicting their downfall for two years now and they simply won’t go away. There will be bumps in the road as Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy get acclimated to the bigs, but I am pretty sure Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, and Hideki Matsui should smooth most of those out.
3. Toronto Blue Jays– Scott Rolen always seem to be a hit in his new city until he gets tired of his manager so this bodes well for the Jays. The pitching rotation is probably the best top to bottom in the division with Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, and Dustin McGowan anchoring the staff. It will take a bounce back year from Vernon Wells and a health Scott Rolen to help them keep things interesting.
4. Tampa Bay Rays–I am probably in the minority but I really liked the Delmon Young deal for this team (from both sides really). The Rays don’t lack in hitting and will continue to score more runs as they mature. However what they needed most was pitching and while Matt Garza is no ace he helps stabilize a young rotation with Jamie Shields and Scott Kazmir.
5. Baltimore Orioles– What can I say about this team? They are so poorly managed they can’t even manage to trade their few valuably pieces to get younger. Honestly how is Brian Roberts helping you! They did manage a good haul in the Erik Bedard deal and have an excellent young OF with Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. But outside of that… they should be in the cellar for years to come.

AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians– It seems given the ending to the 2007 season and the rash of off-season moves that people forget that the Indians won the Central in ’07. Doubters have pointed to a “suspect” line-up, concerns about a repeat from Fausto Carmona, and the reliability of Joe Borowski. Yet, they have the most dependable rotation of the main contenders and outside of Borowski their bullpen looks good. They should even get a boost at Travis Hafner bounces back from an off year. This team is scary.
2. Detroit Tigers– Not that long ago the Tigers were a 100 loss team. About the only number like that associated with them now is the size of the contract lined up for their big off-season splash Miguel Cabrera. But as good as their line-up will be, 1000 runs or not, there are questions about everyone in their rotation except Justin Verlander. Additionally injuries to Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney leave their bullpen in shambles. Basically they are the Yankees of that last few years except Todd Jones is their closer instead of Mariano Rivera.
3. Minnesota Twins– After the losses of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana most people had this team pegged for the basement. That was my initial reaction as well but after the top two in this division it’s a scrum of the average. When taking that into consideration I choose to put my faith in the three J’s: Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, and Justin Morneau. And if Francisco Liriano recovers well enough to be an ace of this staff than this team really isn’t that different than many other Twins teams over the past decade that have outperformed expectation.
4. Chicago White Sox – In a game like Baseball everything eventually averages out. White Sox fans can consider 2007, a year when everyone slumped, the karmic flip side for 2005, a year when everyone had a career year. While the offense should bounce back in a big way for this team, especially with the addition of Nick Swisher, the pitching is going to hold them back in a big way. They overpaid Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink add that to John Danks and Gavin Floyd and Jim Thome and Paul Konerko can’t hit enough dingers to overcome that.
5. Kansas City Royals– I can’t tell you how much I want to pick this team not to finish last. I am so down on the Sox that I nearly did it until I looked at their roster. I can’t pick a team whose ace is Gil Meche, veteran stabilizing presence is Mark Grudzielanek, and has only 6 players (such as Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Joakim Soria) who would reasonably play for any other team in the division. I still think the Royals worst days are behind them, but they missed out on their chance to get out of the basement last year.

AL West
1. LA Angels– The Angels have arguably been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the majors. They’ve lost their #2 pitcher Kelvin Escobar for the season and their ace, John Lackey, could be out until June depending on who you’re listening too. Plus off-season addition Torii Hunter is not the ideal hitter to protect Vlad Gurrero. Still the Angels are load with young talent like Jered Weaver and Howie Kendrick and are clearly the class of the division.
2. Seattle Mariners– With a little bit of luck and a hyped off-season trade you too can be the Seattle Mariners! The M’s have been the hottest team (along with the Braves) to be a trendy “sleeper” division winner pick. The difference is that the Braves are a good team and the Mariners, despite the addition of Erik Bedard and the maturation of Felix Hernandez are not. The Mariners were another team that was outscored last year but still managed to finish above .500 thanks to lights out closer J.J. Putz. However, their only above average offensive player is Ichiro and thus they are destined to come back to earth a little.
3. Oakland A's– I often struggle with the urge to overrate this team given my affection for Billy Beane and his sabermetic ways. However, the off-season trades leaves Jack Cust, Mark Ellis, and Eric Chavez as about the only hitters most people have ever heard of, so one has to wonder how much they really have left. Well not much power, that’s for sure. Baseball Prospects projects the A’s to slug a measly .403, third worst in the majors ahead of only the Giants and ironically the Mariners. The A’s can still do a little pitching though with Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Huston Street, and the ever tantalizing Rich Harden. They aren’t a threat, but they’ll be better than you think.
4. Texas Rangers– What can I say about this team other than they are pretty bad. There is some hitting there with Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and recently acquired Josh Hamilton. But given the launching pad that is their stadium hitting is not the problem. The issue is, as it always has been, the lack of any really effective pitching. When Vicente Padilla is your #2 starter you’ve got serious problems. So unless Kevin Millwood can make 45 starts and Joaquin Benoit and C.J. Wilson are eating all the relief innings I don’t think they’ve got a chance for anything better than about 70-72 wins.

AL Playoffs
LA Angels over Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians over NY Yankees

Cleveland Indians over LA Angels

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
AL CY YOUNG: Justin Verlander

My New Gig

I can't believe it's taken me almost a week and a half to mention this, but I've added a 2nd podcast to my schedule and this one is outside the Chicago Sportscast Network.
My new podcast is called Wait 'til Next Year and is hosted at The Sports Stuff.com and as you can probably guess is about my beloved Chicago Cubs. This podcast is actually getting picked up where it was originally started by my co-host Brian Kush. Brian is also the host of (in my opinion) the best Bulls podcast out there Running With the Bulls and the Video Game Review 2.0. We picked it up last week on episode 5 and recently recorded episode 6 which recapped Opening Day. Oddly enough Brian and I were both at Cubs Opening Day game in 1994 when Tuffy Rhodes hit 3 Hrs off Doc Gooden in a losing effort and it amongst the most vivid memories in both of our Cub fandom's (outside of the obvious of course ). So far each episode has run about 40min and been (again in my opinion) highly entertaining. So if you are looking for lively, intelligent, and humorous Cubs talk this is hopefully the place to get it. (link here) I hope you listen and enjoy.