With the baseball season upon us I figured it was time to open my damn mouth again and see how things in both leagues stack up for the year ahead. I’ll start wit the AL because I don’t really have a vested interest other than enjoying seeing the Yankees and White Sox suffer.
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox – They are the defending champs. They did it with off years from Manny Ramirez and Big Papi. There are some concerns about their pitching rotation and what happens to Tim Wakefield with Doug Mirabelli out of town. However, Josh Beckett and Dice-K should hold down the fort enough to get through the youngsters struggles. This team is still the best blend of youth and established stars.
2. New York Yankees*– They still have a tremendous line-up. I’ve been predicting their downfall for two years now and they simply won’t go away. There will be bumps in the road as Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy get acclimated to the bigs, but I am pretty sure Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, and Hideki Matsui should smooth most of those out.
3. Toronto Blue Jays– Scott Rolen always seem to be a hit in his new city until he gets tired of his manager so this bodes well for the Jays. The pitching rotation is probably the best top to bottom in the division with Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, and Dustin McGowan anchoring the staff. It will take a bounce back year from Vernon Wells and a health Scott Rolen to help them keep things interesting.
4. Tampa Bay Rays–I am probably in the minority but I really liked the Delmon Young deal for this team (from both sides really). The Rays don’t lack in hitting and will continue to score more runs as they mature. However what they needed most was pitching and while Matt Garza is no ace he helps stabilize a young rotation with Jamie Shields and Scott Kazmir.
5. Baltimore Orioles– What can I say about this team? They are so poorly managed they can’t even manage to trade their few valuably pieces to get younger. Honestly how is Brian Roberts helping you! They did manage a good haul in the Erik Bedard deal and have an excellent young OF with Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. But outside of that… they should be in the cellar for years to come.
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians– It seems given the ending to the 2007 season and the rash of off-season moves that people forget that the Indians won the Central in ’07. Doubters have pointed to a “suspect” line-up, concerns about a repeat from Fausto Carmona, and the reliability of Joe Borowski. Yet, they have the most dependable rotation of the main contenders and outside of Borowski their bullpen looks good. They should even get a boost at Travis Hafner bounces back from an off year. This team is scary.
2. Detroit Tigers– Not that long ago the Tigers were a 100 loss team. About the only number like that associated with them now is the size of the contract lined up for their big off-season splash Miguel Cabrera. But as good as their line-up will be, 1000 runs or not, there are questions about everyone in their rotation except Justin Verlander. Additionally injuries to Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney leave their bullpen in shambles. Basically they are the Yankees of that last few years except Todd Jones is their closer instead of Mariano Rivera.
3. Minnesota Twins– After the losses of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana most people had this team pegged for the basement. That was my initial reaction as well but after the top two in this division it’s a scrum of the average. When taking that into consideration I choose to put my faith in the three J’s: Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, and Justin Morneau. And if Francisco Liriano recovers well enough to be an ace of this staff than this team really isn’t that different than many other Twins teams over the past decade that have outperformed expectation.
4. Chicago White Sox – In a game like Baseball everything eventually averages out. White Sox fans can consider 2007, a year when everyone slumped, the karmic flip side for 2005, a year when everyone had a career year. While the offense should bounce back in a big way for this team, especially with the addition of Nick Swisher, the pitching is going to hold them back in a big way. They overpaid Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink add that to John Danks and Gavin Floyd and Jim Thome and Paul Konerko can’t hit enough dingers to overcome that.
5. Kansas City Royals– I can’t tell you how much I want to pick this team not to finish last. I am so down on the Sox that I nearly did it until I looked at their roster. I can’t pick a team whose ace is Gil Meche, veteran stabilizing presence is Mark Grudzielanek, and has only 6 players (such as Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Joakim Soria) who would reasonably play for any other team in the division. I still think the Royals worst days are behind them, but they missed out on their chance to get out of the basement last year.
AL West
1. LA Angels– The Angels have arguably been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the majors. They’ve lost their #2 pitcher Kelvin Escobar for the season and their ace, John Lackey, could be out until June depending on who you’re listening too. Plus off-season addition Torii Hunter is not the ideal hitter to protect Vlad Gurrero. Still the Angels are load with young talent like Jered Weaver and Howie Kendrick and are clearly the class of the division.
2. Seattle Mariners– With a little bit of luck and a hyped off-season trade you too can be the Seattle Mariners! The M’s have been the hottest team (along with the Braves) to be a trendy “sleeper” division winner pick. The difference is that the Braves are a good team and the Mariners, despite the addition of Erik Bedard and the maturation of Felix Hernandez are not. The Mariners were another team that was outscored last year but still managed to finish above .500 thanks to lights out closer J.J. Putz. However, their only above average offensive player is Ichiro and thus they are destined to come back to earth a little.
3. Oakland A's– I often struggle with the urge to overrate this team given my affection for Billy Beane and his sabermetic ways. However, the off-season trades leaves Jack Cust, Mark Ellis, and Eric Chavez as about the only hitters most people have ever heard of, so one has to wonder how much they really have left. Well not much power, that’s for sure. Baseball Prospects projects the A’s to slug a measly .403, third worst in the majors ahead of only the Giants and ironically the Mariners. The A’s can still do a little pitching though with Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Huston Street, and the ever tantalizing Rich Harden. They aren’t a threat, but they’ll be better than you think.
4. Texas Rangers– What can I say about this team other than they are pretty bad. There is some hitting there with Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and recently acquired Josh Hamilton. But given the launching pad that is their stadium hitting is not the problem. The issue is, as it always has been, the lack of any really effective pitching. When Vicente Padilla is your #2 starter you’ve got serious problems. So unless Kevin Millwood can make 45 starts and Joaquin Benoit and C.J. Wilson are eating all the relief innings I don’t think they’ve got a chance for anything better than about 70-72 wins.
AL Playoffs
LA Angels over Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians over NY Yankees
Cleveland Indians over LA Angels
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
AL CY YOUNG: Justin Verlander
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