The Clock Strikes Twelve on Big Ben!

Well the Ben Wallace era in Chicago will do down as one of highs and lows. After reaching the second round of the playoffs for the first time post-Jordan, his time in Chicago was off to a good start. But as the team languishes 10 games under .500 for much of the season fans began to see less toughness and leadership and more poor rebounding and non-existent scoring. Now I am not going to lie and say I knew Big Ben was going to be a bust. I, like so many others, was excited that we “stole” him from Detroit and that this signaled the next step in this teams evolution into a title contender. However, I am also not going to pretend like I am sad to see him go. Wallace had become and ineffective distraction. It got so bad that the Bulls had to take on the contract of a nearly equal free agent bust, Larry Hughes, just to ship him out of town. But it’s done now so let’s take a look at the deal based on what was lost, what was gain, and where we are going now.

What we lost: Given that Ben Wallace is part of this trade it’s hard to define it as “loss” per say. However, despite not living up to expectations Wallace was far from a useless player. He is still an excellent interior defender and passer who really suffered from not being paired with a scoring big man. That said Wallace has been routinely out-rebounded by Noah all year and given that the season is somewhat lost it’s time to play the youth. Also going in this deal was the endearing and surprising Joe Smith. Smith was everything the Bulls could’ve expected and more. For a veteran playing for the mid-level exception he really was an outstanding find this off-season. Sadly the team is not in a position to use him and moving him frees up more minutes for the youthful front court. The final two pieces to leave were Adrian Griffin (who will call meetings to suspend teammates now?) and a 2^nd round pick that are both probably of little consequence. Overall the Bulls didn’t lose anything important to their future and they got rid of Ben Wallace, not a bad move.

What we gained: Well it was pretty much impossible to move Ben Wallace without getting back another bad contract, and we certainly did in Larry Hughes. Hughes cashed in on a career year in Washington 3 years ago and has never come close to repeating that in Cleveland. However, I do think there are several reasons to think he will play significantly better in Chicago:

1. His first year in Cleveland he had a terrible hand injury and the second one of his parents. While Hughes has never been the poster child for health, the guy is due to have some better luck.
2. Because of personnel problems Hughes was forced to play primarily at PG for the Cavs; which pretty much dictates dribbling the ball down the court, passing to LeBron, and getting out of the way. He should benefit from the switch back to SG full-time.
3. Hughes was never a good fit alongside LeBron because he is not a good jump shooter. In fact they have a similar game with Hughes obviously not being nearly as good. Hughes best season came when he drove to the basket and got to the line 7 times a game. In Cleveland all those driving lanes were for LBJ, but in Chicago Hughes should have a lot more freedom.

I by no means think Hughes is a god send and the answer to all our problems, but he could add an interesting dimension that we have not had and should be easier to move in the future than Wallace. In addition to Wallace the Bulls pick up a proven PF, former Hinrich teammate at Kansas, Drew Gooden. Gooden is a solid presence inside whose major advantage comes from being 6 years younger than Smith. He should provide much of the same scoring, with a little more inside, and a bit more rebounding. Gooden doesn’t command double-teams on the block, but he should team up well with Joakim Noah for this year and could be a long-term option. Then there are the throw-in’s Brown and Cedric Simmons. Both are former first round picks who are high on athleticism but extremely raw in skills. Neither is probably likely to see the floor a lot or have a long stay in Chicago.

What Now?: Well in the immediate future Jim Boylan will have to figure out how to divvy up suddenly scarce backcourt minutes. Hinrich seems to have the PG duties locked up so Gordon, Sefalosha, and Hughes will have to split time at SG. The likely solution, at least with Deng’s minutes being limited, is that Thabo will slide to SF when Nocioni moves to PF. Speaking of the forwards, those who wanted to see the young guys play you are about to get your wish. With Smith and Wallace gone the Bulls will have little choice but to give Tyrus and Noah major minutes. Gooden should see plenty of time as well and Nocioni and Gray will divide up the remaining minutes. The short term pluses are the Bulls will no longer be forced to play 4 on 5 when on offense and should become much more of a running team. It is possible that they could ride the youth and energy into the playoffs for a token appearance.

As for this off-season, this deal sets up the Bulls with a lot more flexibility. Gordon and Deng will both be eligible for sign-n-trades. Nocioni and Hinrich will be off Base Year Compensation and be able to be traded for the full value of their contracts. And Gooden will have a desirable ($7mil) expiring deal. This should give Paxson plenty of options to bring in a big name player. The questions will be on where to bring that player in. If Deng is set as the SF of the future (and he better be after not being included in the Gasol deal) then the Bulls need to add their All-star to the front court or back court. The problem is up front you have two young and improving players in Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah, are we going to trade one of them or block their development by bringing in an All-Star? And in the back court you have two players whose stock has dropped, Gordon and Hinrich, and limited available options with Baron Davis and Gilber Arenas likely to be the only All-Star caliber Guards available. So there are a lot of questions still to be answered, and Paxson is far from out of the woods with me and other Bulls fans. But there is perhaps some light at the end of the tunnel now that we moved that stupid Afro out of the way.

(Early) Spring Cleaning

Well the Bears began what should be a very interesting off-season by doing some house cleaning. Veterans Mushin Muhammad, Fred "Turnstile" Miller, and Darwin Walker were all let go. Out of the three the only really surprising one if Walker. Still these are all moves that needed to be made as these players were all making way too much money compared with their production. But lets take a look at what each move means for that position on the Bears roster:

WR: "Moose" Muhammad was the Bears big splash a few years back. He was a veteran reciever coming off an amazing year with the Carolina Panthers who was supposed to give us a legitimate threat in the passing game. However, age and poor QB play have caught up with Moose pretty fast and now he's on he way out of town. There is a strong belief that these moves were directed in some part towards clearing the cap space to franchise Bernard Berrian, who is a free agent. Given the wealth of unproven talent behind Berrian that seems like the Bears only move at this point if they can't get him locked up long term. It's one thing to lose a #2 receiver, and a totally different thing to lose a #1 and #2 in an off-season where the free agent class is weak. I know the Bears project Hester to eventually be a #1 receiver, but at best he will probably be a more reliable #3 next year and it's important for the Bears to keep at least one established player at this spot around.

OT: Few people were harder on Fred Miller this past year than I was. The offensive line worried me at the start of the season and I stated that if the Bears really slipped this year it would because of a fall off in Tackle play. Sadly that prediction came true as the aging Miller fought nagging injuries all the way to setting a new NFL record for "look out" blocks. It's a shame cause Miller comes across as a good guy, but just one who's time has passed. The move, however, does leave the Bears EXTREMELY thin at this position. It is essential that the Bears land an OT in free agency or the draft, and probably both since John St. Clair doesn't inspire much confidence as a back-up. Even before the move this figured to be the Bears #1 off-season focus, and now it HAS to be.

DT: Walker came in during training camp to be the final piece to a defensive masterpiece. Instead he proved incapable of unseating the young Dustin Dvoracek before the start of the season, and then was painfully ineffective following Dustin's injury. The end of the one year relationship with Walker was due mainly to the large ($5.2mil) bonus he was to receive in early March. I am sure had Walker been the run stuffer the Bears need alongside Harris they would've gladly paid it, but instead it's a prime excuse to send him on his merry way. Still this means the Bears will add a body here at some point. Obviously Dvoracek will have first crack at being Harris' running mate now that he's out of ACL's to tear. But the depth past that is pretty shaky since Idonije (as much as I love him) is really more of a combo DT/DE. The Bears will need one more big body to add to the mix and I'd bet on it being a veteran.

Along with these three moves the Bears renegotiated Alex Brown's contract, which runs through 2011. Brown, who lost his job even before training camp last year, was at odds with the organization and many thought he was on his way out of town. I've always thought the Bears undervalued him and that he is an excellent two-way defensive end, and actually able to hold up against the run unlike Mark Anderson. Brown's strong play in the 2nd half of the season should earn him his starting job back and give the Bears a solid 3 end rotation.

100 Years... and counting?

We’ve all heard the jokes, everyone has a bad century, ect, but for a Cubs fan it is anything but funny. As pitchers and catchers report to Mesa, AZ the 2008 Cubs come determined to end the most embarrassing drought in professional sports. But the more important question is, can they? A NL Central title and 2007 playoff appearance are encouraging signs, especially because we didn’t have to depend on Kerry Wood or Mark Prior. However, the less than inspiring win total, 85, and 1^st round sweep at the hand of the Diamondbacks would certainly seem to damper enthusiasm. So will the Cubs finally make back-to-back playoff appearances? Is their record from June 2 on (a 94 win pace) indicative of what we can expect now that Pinella has a handle on the roster? Or will we once again be left lamenting “wait ‘til next year”?

So before we start looking ahead, to what will hopefully be a very successful 2008, we should take a look at some of the pieces we’ve lost from that 2007 team. The two most prominent contributors to that team that are no longer with us are Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, and Jason Kendall. Jones, who was almost traded for the proverbial “bag of balls” in July, had an extremely strong 2^nd half and played an outstanding CF at a time when that was a real crisis. Jones has been a somewhat controversial player since he signed here, seemingly never overcoming the ill-will built up over his extremely slow starts. He was moved to Detroit this off-season to clear up the log-jam in CF and RF and it’s probably for the best on all sides. Floyd was brought in to add some pop to the OF and it just looks like injuries and father time caught up with him. Floyd still has a beautiful swing and pulled more than a few frozen ropes into RF in ’07, but in the end he was nothing more than a left-handed platoon for Matt Murton. Finally Jason Kendall actually defected to the division rival Milwaukee Brewers. Which makes sense considering Kendall‘s 2007 was to be the band-aid after the Cubs removed the Michael Barrett scab. He has proved expendable with the emergence of Soto and the return of Blanco, and this means the Cubs should be able to run plenty on the Brewers this year. I am not going to make much of the loss of Mark Prior and Will Ohman, pretty much because I consider both of those moves addition by subtraction.

As we move on from 2007 and look to this year, we put to rest the ghosts of those that are no longer with us and concentrate on those who have joined us in battle. Really the only major addition from outside the organization this off-season was that of Kosuke Fukudome. However, he will be joined full-time this year by prospects Geovany Soto and Felix Pie. All three of these players offer a significant up-grade over the players who held their positions in 2007. Fukudome finally provides the Cubs with an established left-handed bat and another hitter with plate discipline. Some wonder how his stats will translate from Japan to the U.S., but as we have seen more and more hitters succeed in after coming over I think it’s a fair assumption he will be an improvement over the Floyd/Murton platoon. Soto, if nothing else, is the best defensive catcher the Cubs have had in years, outside of Hank White (Henry Blanco). Additionally, the light seemed to go on for Soto last year offensively as he destroyed AAA, winning an MVP award, and continued to perform in the majors. The production from this position for the Cubs last year was amongst the worst in the majors. So if Soto continues to show solid plate discipline and good defense, as he always had, it’ll be a major bonus for the Cubs. For Felix Pie 2008 represents his first as the projected starter for the Cubs after years as the organizations top prospect. Hitting at the bottom of the lineup should allow him to grow into being a major league hitter. And while there is an outside chance Fall League MVP Sam Fuld could beat him out for the job, being the more polished hitter, either way the Cubs should have a young lefty CF who plays solid defense all year. The final piece recently added was Jon Lieber. As former 20 game winner with the Cubs he has a favorable track record, but he struggled with injuries in his most recent seasons with the Phillies. If nothing else, healthy, he is a better #5 option than the converted Ryan Dempster. Overall I think the Cubs made strong upgrades in 3 spots where they were very weak in 2007.

To say the least I think most Cubs fans expected more from this line-up than 750 runs. With all-star caliber hitters Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano you’d expect HRs galore and a high scoring team. Instead the Cubs struggled all year to score runs and didn’t find their power stroke until the final 6 weeks of the year. But what about 2008 should be different? We break down the line-up into 3 components: stars, new guys, and role players.

Stars: The only one of the three big hitters who lived up to expectations last year was Ramirez. If he continues to put up the numbers he has over the last 4 years Ramirez might find himself in an All-Star game with Cabrera now in the AL. Soriano struggled early in the year out in CF and slowly turned it on after moving back to LF. Still his OBP was down from 2006 with the Nationals and he missed 3 weeks with a torn quad. However, his September performance was outstanding and hopefully now that he is established and know his role we’ll see more months like that. Derrek Lee finally got recognition as a fielder but in 2007 seemed to have lost his power stroke. His slugging % dropped 150pts from the 2005 season as long fly balls seemed to hit the top of the wall instead of ending up in the bleachers. The hope is that the linger effects of the gruesome wrist injury will finally be gone and we will see another 35+ HR season from D-Lee.

New Guys: Geovany Soto has the potential to be one of the better offensive catchers in the NL, but even an average offensive season would be enough. He’s likely to bat 6^th behind Fukudome and should have plenty of opportunity for driving in runs hitting behind the quick Japanese hitter who should be on base a lot. Speaking of Fukudome, he should make an immediate impact in the middle of the lineup. I personally feel his OBP and double power would be better used at the top of the lineup, but hitting 5^th he should provided adequate protection for A-Ram and be an excellent table setter for the bottom half or the line-up. Finally we have Felix Pie who was wildly out of his element hitting 2^nd during his first call up last year. This year the Cubs will simply rely on his outstanding defense and let him slowly adjust to major league pitchers at the bottom of the line-up. He is obviously an extremely talented hitter, but it would unwise to expect much out of him as a hitter this year.

Role Players: And remaining we have our solid, if not spectacular, middle infielders. Mark DeRosa and Ryan Theriot both exceeded expectations last year. They enter 2008 with their positions assured (for the most part) and the chance to make crucial contributions. DeRosa was the biggest surprise. After spending his career as a utility player he finally got nearly 100 starts at 2^nd base and responded with a .371 OBP. Hopefully we’ll see more of that this year and he can secure the spot at the top of the lineup he deserves. As for Ryan Theriot, he came out of nowhere to become a fan favorite and held down the fort at SS after Izturis proved to not be up to the task. Perhaps miscast hitting #2 due to offensive struggles, he still embodies much of what we love in players with his hustle and grit. Theriot will hopefully avoid tailing off with a full year under his belt and can secure himself a spot for a number of years hitting in front of Pie at #7.

That’s the way I see the Cubs line-up breaking down. And hopefully we’ll see a lineup that resembles: Soriano, DeRosa, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soto, Theriot, and Pie. I believe that’d be the best we can do under current constrictions, like Pinella’s insistence to hit Soriano leadoff, and it’s a lineup that should easily clear last year’s 752 runs scored.

As much of a surprise as the lineup was on the negative end, the Cubs 2007 rotation was more of a surprise on the positive end. Despite a below average season from Carlos Zambrano the Cubs still finished 2^nd behind the San Diego Padres (who play in cavern not a ballpark) in ERA in the NL. Free Agent addition Ted Lilly proved to be the ideal stopper, going 9-1 after a Cubs loss, and as a result was even joked as being the opening day starter this year. Still the 2008 rotation seems to break down into two sections: the established and the scrum. And then there’s the bullpen.

The Established: Basically the first three slots in the rotation are set aside for Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill. All three were solid performers last year and Zambrano and Hill certainly still have room to improve. Big Z will hopefully be over the contract distractions which seem to affect him a year ago and get off to a solid start instead of waiting til May to register a win. Lilly was the best Free Agent signing in all of baseball last year and if he can even repeat the same numbers I would be incredibly happy. Finally we have Rich Hill who finally cut down his walks and we saw how effective he can be when his curveball is on. The problem is he can be knocked out of games early when he’s not throwing the curve for strikes as teams just sit on his fastball. Hopefully we’ll see an improved change-up from Hill this year and more 6 and 7 inning starts.

The Scrum: After the first three spots though nothing is determined. We have Jason Marquis who disintegrated down the stretch, but at $7mil/yr can he be kept out of the rotation? Then there’s Ryan Dempster who is trying to make the move from the bullpen to the rotation. And then there’s the Cubs’ most recent free agent addition Jon Lieber. As a former 20game winner with Cubs we are all familiar with him and he’s already made it known he would accept a spot in the rotation of bullpen. Oh, and there’s Sean Marshall to a guy who put up a sub 4 ERA in 19 starts last year but seems to be the odd guy out. Finally we have two young prospects in Kevin Hart and Sean Gallagher. Hart made an impact in the bullpen last year and looks like he could find himself there again with solid spring, He has an impressive cutter and could be a key right-hander who can get out lefties in the pen. Gallagher appears to be the center piece of the rumored Brian Roberts deal, but if he stays he could surprise everyone by sneaking on the roster with a strong spring.

The Pen: The biggest issue in the bullpen is, who will be the closer? Kerry Wood, Bob Howry, and Carlos Marmol will compete for that position this spring. The best part of the situation is that all three can do the job and the Cubs will not miss having Dempster in this role. Additional arms in the pen this year will be the quiet but effective Michael Wuertz, who is a steal considering what he makes, the solo left Scott Eyre, who is looking to rebound from a rough year, and likely one or two of the pitchers who fail in their bids for the rotation. This is another area where the Cubs have a glut of talented players, and even if they weaken it with deal it still should be amongst the best in baseball.

The Cubs appear to be one of the few teams with the luxury of too much pitching. It is possible that some of it could be on the move this spring for that very reason. Additionally, there are still some concerns that they don’t have a second big time starter to go with Zambrano, but given the overall success of the rotation last year I think that’s an overstated concern. If the Cubs rotation can avoid injuries they should have enough bodies to repeat last year’s success.

So as good as things look why the persistent rumors that Brian Roberts is on his way to the Cubs? Would he really push us over the top? Doesn’t he play the same position as the effective DeRosa? Well let’s go through the pros and cons real quick:

Pros: Roberts is a switch-hitter and potential all-star at second base. He would give the Cubs a legit leadoff hitter and finally give them an inarguable reason to move Soriano down. His speed and OBP would be weapons at the top of the line-up and Soriano’s HRs would drive in a lot more runs near the bottom of the order. Additionally the Cubs are not rumored to be giving up anything essential to the current roster to bring in a legitimate star.

Cons: Roberts does play the same position as DeRosa who was an outstanding find last year and really deserves the chance to start full time. Also, the Cubs would have to give up a good young pitcher in Gallagher who could be in the rotation early as next year when Dempster and Lieber will be off the books. Is that all worth it for a player who might not be the final piece?

The most recent deal of Gallagher, Matt Murton, and Ronny Cedeno for Roberts seems to be fair to both sides. While I am not a huge fan of moving DeRosa to the bench, his versatility means that the he should still get plenty of at-bats during the season and be ready to step into a starting job if someone gets hurt. I personally feel that the biggest bonus to this deal is that the move would also coincide with the drop of Soriano in the order. Soriano is wasted hitting leadoff because his power comes with our lowest OBP players in front of him. If Roberts were hitting first we wouldn’t lose any of the speed and we’d just have one more solid player to get on for Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano there to drive him in. I don’t think that Roberts is essential to Cubs success this year, and I doubt he’s the difference maker for a Championship, but if the recent rumored price is true, I feel they should make the deal.

So what’s the verdict? This Cubs team seems to be improved from the team that won its division a year ago and I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t happen again. With a roster that will, hopefully, experience a lot less in-season turnover we should see the Cubs play a full year like they did after June last year. Add in the major upgrades of Fukudome, Soto, and Pie and a strong 90 win season should be the expectation. However, as always these are the Cubs and this year winning the division should not be enough. The questions will hang over the rotation all year if no one emerges as a big-time compliment to Big Z, but the Cubs have shown a willingness to still add players and payroll so a mid-season deal is not out of the question. Still, we should get a season of winning Cubs baseball and given that it’s the Cubs I think that’s all we can really hope for.

Wandering Back in from the Cold

Well I haven't written much lately (at least for here) and if anyone bothers to read this it sorta requires an explanation. I've spent most of my free time recently trying to spruce up Bearscast and get the word out for it on myspace and facebook.


Additionally I've been invited to do some posts for another blog/webzine Chicago Sporting Zone. Basically it's a chance to reach a lot more people than I am sure I do here and I highly recommend people check it out for some fresh and (fairly) intelligent perspective on all Chicago sports. However, all that said I am going to try, effective this week, to live up to my New Year's resolution of posting two articles a week on here that you will probably be able to find at either the Sporting Zone or Bearscast. This is of course pending me getting a real job, at which point all bets are off.